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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable


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Rating: 5 out of 5 stars - Read the book for the philosophy of risk
I consider The Black Swan one of the most influential books in my life. I reread it several times, and each time I discovered some nuances relevant to whatever I was working on at the time. The book is truly timeless.

The Black Swan does not teach you *what* to do. It crisply describes the concept in the Introduction and then presents this concept from different angles -- many angles, widely different angles, with philosophical, historical and personal narratives behind them. Some reviewers here find this approach repetitive or verbose. I think such criticism is misguided. If all one wants to know is the Black Swan concept, the book is not necessary. Reading reviews (including some Amazon.com reviews) would suffice.

The problem is that knowing the Black Swan concept is not enough. The nature of Black Swans is such that it is impossible to provide a concrete advice for what to do about them. A Black Swan is an event that catches you completely unprepared and leaves you affected for life. A short book could pursue one of the two venues. Either it would proclaim that any resistance is futile and we are doomed. Or it would concoct some protection against Black Swans and try sell it to gullible readers. An intelligent book should, on the other hand, provide the reader with all relevant information and teach him to face the unforeseen.

And so Taleb describes Black Swans from the historical, philosophical, social, medical, biological, scientific, economic, personal, and other points of view. As soon as you internalize the Black Swan principle, you start seeing Black Swans everywhere. This is not an optical illusion; it is a removal of a long-engraved blind spot. Over the years Taleb has collected a wealth of the Black Swan evidence; in the book he shares his findings so that the reader can recognize Black Swans, too.

Taleb does not "train" in Black-Swan avoidance; he "educates" about their habits and known manifestations. When the book finally gets to you, you become highly skeptical about every major aspect of your professional and personal life. You become less idealistic but also more wise and alert. This could not be achieved with mere recital of facts; this was possible through innovative metaphors, original narratives and reinforcements of the key principles. Dealing with the Black Swans requires openmindness and the book opens one's mind.

Buy this book for the wisdom you will gain from it, for the deep appreciation of the things that we just don't know, for the Aha moments on virtually every page.



Rating: 1 out of 5 stars - Mostly potatoes
The author is verbose and altogether too fond of the personal pronoun. The book is filled with valueless literary allusion and "clever" neology.

I thought I ordered beef stew but got 99% potatoes and too much salt.

Q: if he has something to say, why doesn't he just say it?
A: because it would be a one-pager.
(NOTE: that the one page would be true and factual doesn't make the entire book a worthwhile read.)



Rating: 3 out of 5 stars - Good information, but long winded.
I would say most of this book was just long winded. There is a lot of talking that doesn't do anything than to distract from the original point and almost make you forget what the author was talking about. But the central points of the book.... when the author gets to them are really good. The bell curve is a disaster in the social sciences and any field that moves, but the author spends more time complaining about "he said she said" sorts of things instead of getting down to the nuts and bolts of the problem. This leaves his message unclear and painful to get to with all the unnecessary writing. The book could be two chapters long, clear and concise...and so much better.



Rating: 2 out of 5 stars - Should be 80 Pages
The author clearly loves to hear himself talk because he's filled up this book with a great many unnecessary pages and stories that just feel misplaced. There are a couple of meaningful chapters, but very few (15-17). It's also annoying that throughout he ties everything to luck. Overall, a disappointing read.



Rating: 1 out of 5 stars - Painfully Self Serving, Narcissitic Pseudo Intellectualism
I won't dignify this idiotic book with a thorough review. Read a total of 100 pages, and I'm exhausted. If you like hearing others pontificate on why they're smarter than you, this is a real treat. I can't add anything to what others who have rated this book likewise have already said.


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